The Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP), the share of each state’s Medicaid costs borne by the federal government, is recalculated each year. Preliminary projections of federal fiscal year (FY) 2014 FMAPs show a continuation of the recent pattern in which substantially more states experience reductions than increases. About 30 states are projected to experience a decline and about 4 to 7 an increase. This reflects personal income shifts among the states as well as an unusual population growth pattern reported by the Census Bureau for 2009-2011. Overall, the shifts are estimated to decrease federal Medicaid grants in FY 2014 by $1.1 to $1.9 billion when compared to the FMAPs for the current FY 2012, with decreases of $2 to $3 billion offset by somewhat more than $1 billion of increases for gaining states.
NOTE: Vic Miller is an independent analyst and the observations in the paper are his own and not those of NAMD.